Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 01:52:21

AWUS01 KWNH 270152
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0593
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Central NC...North-Central SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270150Z - 270600Z

Summary...Rainfall rates as high as 1-3"/hr will likely lead to
localized totals of 2-4". Isolated to widely scattered instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Convection is quickly proliferating across portions
of central North Carolina this evening, located ahead of an
approaching cold front and associated upper-level trough to the
west-northwest. The mesoscale environment around and immediately
downstream of the thunderstorms is characterized by surface based
CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.5-1.7 inches (near the 90th
percentile, per GSO sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear of 25-35 kts. Convection is expected to persist and possibly
further organize into a convective complex, as the 18z HREF
depicted a strong signal for 3" exceedance through 06z (30-50%
odds immediately downstream of the organizing convection, per the
40-km neighborhood probabilities). With corresponding FFGs of
generally 2-3" where convection is already occurring (in the
vicinity of Charlotte to near Raleigh), isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding may develop (should
convection effectively train here). An easterly mean wind of ~30
kts through the steering column (850-300 mb) should favor some
training of 1-3"/hr rates before cold pool forcing propagates
convection towards the south. It appears that localized totals in
excess of 3" are most likely in relatively rural portions of the
Sandhills of the Carolinas (where FFGs are highest, closer to 4"
over 6-hr), as this is where the aforementioned HREF signal is
concentrated. As a result of this mis-match between the best odds
for 3" exceedance and the higher FFGs, isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding are considered possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!56w-xAe3eNnH1t_jUVZYe9RU7ymsfukCDdFEIuBgsXEbJhR_Y8YitbdqvvWkbgl8lRQn=
TZMlbjtETShqMHAKV80UNkc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35968019 35937932 35437825 34677840 34127927=20
            34418037 34728114 35018169 35258176 35738099=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.