Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1294
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 01:29:54

ACUS11 KWNS 270129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270129=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-270330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern North Carolina and portions of
northern and central South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...

Valid 270129Z - 270330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms is ongoing across portions of
central North Carolina, with the convection expected to
continue/expand eastward/southeastward with time.  A new WW is
anticipated, to cover areas east and south WW 394 in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of strong/locally
severe storms expanding/spreading eastward across the central North
Carolina vicinity, where a moderately unstable remains in place
(2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE).  Storms are being sustained by
the available buoyancy, with organization being facilitated by shear
associated with a belt of enhanced cyclonic/westerly deep-layer flow
across this area, around the southern periphery of the Great Lakes
mid-level cyclone.

Given that the favorable environment extends to the coast, it
appears that storms -- and associated/local severe risk -- will
likely continue over the next several hours.  As such, new WW
issuance is likely to be required to cover areas east (eastern North
Carolina) and south (parts of South Carolina) of the existing watch.

Additionally, with WW 394 slated for expiration at 27/03Z, potential
lingering risk across this portion of North Carolina could require
temporal extension of the WW across some of the currently included
counties.

...Goss.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_OqP6EZS4FlFUcMS7iquLV3BXPHbfYZIFfZF8pSRxm9UET_Rbj8ukQC2T4wbfJJLxa5dGxHfG=
HvrUJWv2fCPmznmbQA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34998191 36038030 36577884 36577553 35337529 33827755
            33398010 34008194 34998191=20


=3D =3D =3D
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