Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 01:08:58 ACUS01 KWNS 270108 SWODY1 SPC AC 270107 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are most likely this evening from the Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other more isolated damaging winds will be possible across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Storms capable of producing isolated very large hail will remain possible tonight from Wyoming into parts of the central High Plains. ....Carolinas/Southeast VA... Storm coverage is increasing this evening across parts of the Carolina Piedmont, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Discrete storms will continue to pose a hail threat this evening, before some upscale growth occurs and storms spread eastward with an increasing damaging-wind threat. Relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the 00Z MHX sounding) may also support a tornado or two with any persistent supercells and/or line-embedded circulations. ....Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, in advance of a mid/upper-level low across the Great Lakes. Generally weak deep-layer shear will limit storm organization, but weak to moderate buoyancy and modestly enhanced low-level flow may support a few stronger cells/clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and perhaps some marginal hail through much of the evening. A gradual weakening trend is expected with time in association with diurnal cooling/stabilization and widespread convective overturning. ....Wyoming into the central High Plains... Widely scattered supercells have developed across north-central into southeast WY, in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching from the northern Great Basin. The 00Z RIW sounding depicts a favorable hail environment, with steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, and an elongated hodograph with 40+ kt of effective shear. Large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will be possible as storms move eastward toward southwest SD and the NE Panhandle tonight. Very isolated storms are ongoing farther south into southeast CO and northeast NM, and recent runs of the HRRR suggest later development into east-central CO, as a strengthening low-level jet continues to transport moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Storm coverage is very uncertain south of NE, but any mature storm in this area could evolve into a supercell later this evening, with a threat of large hail. ....ArkLaTex vicinity... Elevated storm development remains possible very late tonight in the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a weak warm-advection regime. Rich low-level moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong elevated buoyancy, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. An initial hail threat could develop with initial storms, before some clustering potentially leads to a risk of locally damaging gusts. ...Dean.. 06/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .