Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1292
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 27 2023 00:03:55

ACUS11 KWNS 270003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270003=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-270130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Southern NY State...eastern PA...NJ...into
VA...northern MD and DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...392...

Valid 270003Z - 270130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391, 392
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will persist for a few more hours
with a risk for damaging winds and occasional hail. Convection
should begin to slowly weaken towards sunset.

DISCUSSION...Across WW391 and 392, several clusters of strong to
severe storms were ongoing this evening. Storms have slowly matured
over the last hour or two with reports of damaging gusts and
occasional hail. The air mass across the region remains moderately
unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is relatively
modest suggesting storms will remain multicellular and somewhat
limited in organization potential. Storms will likely remain capable
of damaging gusts and occasional hail for a few more hours this
evening.

To the east of the ongoing storms, previous convection has resulted
in some stabilization and much weaker buoyancy. Storms should begin
to slowly downtrend later this evening as they encounter weaker
buoyancy and increasing MLCIN from previous storms and nocturnal
stabilization. Until then, the severe risk continues.

...Lyons.. 06/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-YPUHWHS5ZhQuDUwOr_Xu0WHzTaSRpI108mZYdbyyb9H6jm3HCpGw5DnjG1Qs-pSXoU7T6y7x=
rsWw_X70y1O9rboT2c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40277439 39537469 39307529 39237532 38537608 38407644
            38327673 38337699 38487716 38707724 39807758 39847764
            40867760 42397689 43027670 43607617 43637555 42727520
            42067514 41597464 41017449 40377441 40277439=20


=3D =3D =3D
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