Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1290
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 22:55:55

ACUS11 KWNS 262255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262255=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern CO into the western OK/TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262255Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing high-based storms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging gusts and small hail this evening. Given isolated storm
coverage, a WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed initial updrafts were deepening across portions of the
southern High Plains. Warm temperatures along a diffuse dryline have
removed most inhibition from the higher terrain to the west. Some
inhibition still remains farther east and may slowly diminish
tonight. Isolated and high-based storm development is possible
across the southern High Plains over the next couple of hours.
Vertical shear varies intensity with portions of southeastern CO
supporting 40+ kt and some potential for storm organization and
supercells. However, much of warm and well mixed air mass farther
south remains weakly sheared. With T/TD spread of 25-30+ degrees,
damaging downbursts appear to be the primary threat, though some
hail is possible if a sustained high-based supercell is able to
become established. Given the weak broad-scale forcing, storm
coverage should remain isolated and a WW appears unlikely.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8l7CZPhTFQFj4WuoyWF43OKfyJllOo_gSn-pym8k6uWQwuJcR5g8q3mfXO1ibYna5nUuSP9Q2=
aRs-WEf-IoZAreTd98$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35220399 36650390 37670284 37680192 37250156 35900193
            35050238 34370277 33800309 33340339 33370380 33630399
            35220399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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