Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1289
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 22:26:24

ACUS11 KWNS 262226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262225=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262225Z - 270030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms are expected to develop over the Laramie
Range and shift east-southeastward with time. Watch may need to be
considered pending eventual storm coverage.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows multiple attempts
at storm development over the Laramie Range, with indications that
lightning may commence in the next half hour to hour.  Just east of
the terrain, daytime heating of the relatively moist boundary layer
(generally upper 50s dewpoints) has resulted in development of 1000
to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

Several CAMs continue to indicate a couple of supercells evolving
across southeastern Wyoming, and then shifting southeastward across
the Nebraska Panhandle, and persisting into mid-evening before
diminishing.  With low-level southeasterly flow indicated via
surface analysis, beneath an anticyclonic belt of mid-level flow
around 40 kt, this supports the idea of a couple of supercell storms
possibly moving off the higher terrain early this evening, with
attendant risk for large hail and a damaging gust or two.  While the
isolated nature of convection currently anticipated may mitigate
need for WW issuance, we will continue to monitor the area for signs
of development that may prove sufficient for WW consideration.

...Goss/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6uPJh-LP64uBPlNlGt91zF9DNoLALnhFoYRxRlpjZuMowHHvWvMGHBZVNe1vOdmWBkHyYRgFx=
IaEOuCJqsLxV378DYQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42860609 43030460 42150231 41570148 41130141 40760218
            41010289 41220522 42860609=20


=3D =3D =3D
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