Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1288
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 20:55:22

ACUS11 KWNS 262055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262055=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeast/coastal
GA...coastal/central SC...and far southern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262055Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for signs of increasing
thunderstorm coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently formed in far
southeast/coastal GA in a weak low-level confluence regime, with
other towering cu also developing in recent visible satellite
imagery. Around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present downstream into
coastal/central SC and far southern NC, with a very moist low-level
airmass in place. Weak surface winds gradually increase through the
boundary layer to around 30 kt around 2-3 km AGL based on recent
VWPs from KCLX/KLTX. This region is on the southern fringe of
enhanced mid-level westerly winds associated with an upper
trough/low centered over the Great Lakes. Even so, around 25-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster some organization with any
convection that can form and be sustained. If robust convection can
develop, a mix of multicells and marginal supercells, with an
associated hail/damaging wind threat, appear possible.
High-resolution guidance shows varying solutions regarding the
number of thunderstorms which may develop across this area. Trends
will be monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm
coverage/intensity, which may eventually prompt watch issuance.

...Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ixVkKbn0CXEJCDYnD3-LFEf99VGMl39FE_WFPzVJIraGvWZhEkmE0jgMiePBxYqmfaHwkPwF=
oiVSMG_mb5fKd854Y0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32688195 33518119 34347924 33877852 33097916 32028086
            32688195=20


=3D =3D =3D
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