Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1287
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 20:31:22

ACUS11 KWNS 262031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262030=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of south-central PA...MD...DC...the
eastern WV Panhandle...and VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...392...393...

Valid 262030Z - 262200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391, 392,
393 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move eastward this afternoon and
evening while posing a threat for severe hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...With around 25-35 kt of mid-level westerly flow
present, mainly cellular convection has developed this afternoon
over the higher terrain of south-central PA into MD/VA. Similar
values of effective bulk shear are aiding updraft organization, with
some supercells with hail cores noted. Severe hail may be the
primary severe threat for the next hour or two as this activity
develops eastward and off the higher terrain. It still seems
probable that convection will eventually grow upscale and pose more
of a damaging wind threat as it moves into northern/central VA, DC,
central MD, and south-central PA over the next couple of hours.
Continued steepening of low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed
boundary layer should support this increasing wind threat with
eastward extent across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 391, 392, and
393.

...Gleason.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!64BvflZF7S8ZynXlBqhTINFY8ACGa3TPi5hOicQlnKJRmUAEI7cyzpdBj4pPccQonYieQ_kQb=
KSkkFmhbd507PwphZ4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37527948 38477907 39407889 40817813 40577660 38577692
            37427788 37527948=20


=3D =3D =3D
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