Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1285
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 19:23:22

ACUS11 KWNS 261923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261922=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA and NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...

Valid 261922Z - 262115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and hail will remain possible with
thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing at 1920Z across
eastern PA into northern NJ. This activity may be tied to a 20-25 kt
southerly low-level jet and related warm advection that is present
along/near much of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Latest surface
observations show a weak surface front extends across southern NY
and far northern NJ. This boundary will probably delineate the
northern extent of appreciable severe threat in the short term. The
ongoing convection along/south of this front has access to around
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and steepened low-level lapse rates.
Damaging winds may occur with the stronger downdrafts. 20-30 kt of
effective bulk shear should continue to provide modest updraft
organization, and a marginal supercell or two capable of producing
hail remains possible. Backed/easterly low-level flow veering to
south- southwesterly at mid levels in the vicinity of the surface
boundary is aiding around 100-150 m2/s2 of effective SRH, perhaps
locally stronger right along the southern NY/northern NJ border.
Even so, modest low-level winds should tend to limit the tornado
threat, but a brief tornado could still occur.

...Gleason.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Jpo3fGwLYSbg-YU_qy0NhQzT3lvu53447gihT99Zny16tWtOb8rWktd-GC0GwM0_zZcPqJWG=
tGFQYp5vv5cCciLxDM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40357647 40997601 41397548 41427500 41337469 41167443
            40987431 40607433 40007496 39917563 40077630 40357647=20


=3D =3D =3D
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