Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1284
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 18:47:23

ACUS11 KWNS 261847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261846=20
CTZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern/southern NY into CT...MA...and
VT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261846Z - 262115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
spreading northward this afternoon. Watch issuance will probably not
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to
move northward this afternoon across parts of eastern/southern NY
and New England. A 17Z special sounding from ALB, modified by
current surface observations, shows a weakly unstable airmass with
around 700 J/kg of MLCAPE. Both low-level and deep-layer shear
remain quite weak however, with a notable drop off in wind speeds
with height from the surface through 500 mb. With effective bulk
shear remaining generally 20 kt or less, thunderstorm clusters
should struggle to become more organized into bowing segments.
Still, some filtered diurnal heating has occurred, and the observed
sounding from ALB does show modestly steepened low-level lapse
rates. This may be sufficient for isolated strong/gusty downdraft
winds capable of producing mainly sporadic tree damage through the
rest of the afternoon. Due to the weak shear and instability
limiting updraft intensity and organization, it appears that watch
issuance will probably not be needed.

...Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4zR6lOLAogJlIHDXJblIqDgt9ELp_InvebdvqjL1Ywk6MKaBv0EeIPktYfdw_IbX5t4tzJf0f=
v0Wq4m3qOq370jNAxI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42087415 42897459 43367500 44137508 44677453 44647350
            43747284 41897217 41177307 41067362 42087415=20


=3D =3D =3D
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