Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1283
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 18:00:20

ACUS11 KWNS 261800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261759=20
GAZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia into the
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261759Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase through the
afternoon, with a few damaging gusts/instance of large hail the
primary concerns. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating of a moist boundary layer is
supporting surface temperatures to exceed 90 F amid 70+ F dewpoints.
Mixing of this boundary layer is resulting in 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates, over 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE/MUCAPE, and the development of a
cumulus field. Convective initiation is already evident along the
Thomas/Brooks County, GA border, and more storms are expected to
initiate and intensify through the afternoon. The stronger buoyancy
will support updrafts intense enough to foster brief damaging
gust/large hail potential. However, weak winds throughout the
troposphere will limit vertical shear and associated storm
organization potential. Therefore, mainly pulse cellular convection
is expected, and a few multicellular clusters may form. A few
instances of damaging gusts/large hail may accompany the stronger
storms. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a
WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Grams.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-b6pZNp3pRcI4XKYsRcyCCCZZnG_VyHNTj628KbxQ9L96CYxYG9zZIGaatxYzgGBKyNCymAxs=
AxwM3Maal2_E1xuRJE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30278350 30198385 30278416 30708430 31488425 32418396
            33358346 33938298 33828237 33228183 32338152 31538160
            30918194 30668249 30278350=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.