Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1280
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 13:38:19

ACUS11 KWNS 261338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261337=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern PA into far southern
NY and NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261337Z - 261500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for hail and gusty winds winds will likely remain
quite isolated in the short term. Watch issuance is not anticipated
in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Widely spaced thunderstorms have developed this morning
from parts of northern into eastern PA as modest large-scale ascent
preceding an upper trough over the Great Lakes begins to overspread
the Mid-Atlantic region. The airmass across this region is only
weakly unstable at the moment, with MUCAPE generally 1250 J/kg or
less. Still, some updraft organization may occur as stronger
mid-level southwesterly winds associated with the upper trough
develop eastward. Hail approaching severe limits may be possible
with the more robust cores given modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates, along with occasional strong/gusty winds. Watch issuance is
not anticipated in the next hour or so (through 15Z/11 AM EDT) due
to the limited/isolated severe threat in the short term. But, more
robust/severe thunderstorm development is still expected later this
afternoon across this region.

...Gleason/Grams.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Uc-5Ob9vyPdSExPsyBeGeskfxolL02sSOxcStJAhxYKCNDgEjZgHuj-Lz5GBwBONEyocE-PD=
5VwHjXu6b9EyF_U4YI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41087680 41477904 41997988 42277837 42107621 41647487
            41257439 40677420 40227457 39717535 39867603 40227608
            41087680=20


=3D =3D =3D
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