Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1279
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 12:52:21

ACUS11 KWNS 261252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261251=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-261445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Central/Southern LA...Far Southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261251Z - 261445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line across northern LA is expected to
continue southward into central LA. Some threat for damaging gusts
may accompany this line, and trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster across northern LA has
shown a trend toward more southward forward propagation over the
past hour. Updrafts within this cluster remain strong and several
near-severe gusts were measured in the SHV vicinity as the line
moved through. Forecast soundings downstream into more of central LA
show a notable pocket of warm and dry conditions within the low to
mid-levels. Consequently, mesoanalysis estimates greater convective
inhibition across central LA than in areas farther north. As such,
there is some question to how this cluster evolves as it moves into
this less favorable air mass. However, given the ample low-level
moisture, this convective inhibition will begin to decrease even
under limited daytime heating. Convective trends will be monitored
closely for potential watch issuance later this afternoon.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6vWnovcM86FCTS930qMYyY5oIrCXK5r1zQ_QGgNd3bJxXnazKp1YFul_v1jNBA5L9FttgxSgX=
7Lvg0Ll3wpAq-mwioU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30969339 31289253 31329073 30569044 30379217 30429330
            30969339=20


=3D =3D =3D
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