Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1278
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 12:33:20

ACUS11 KWNS 261233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261233=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-261430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Northern/Central NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261233Z - 261430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible for the next
hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Low-level jet induced warm-air advection, coupled with
subtle ascent attendant to a modest shortwave trough moving through
WY, resulted in convective initiation across far east-central WY.
Instability is modest, but strong vertical shear across the region
contributed to quick updraft organization. The resulting storm
cluster is now entering the northern NE Panhandle, with recent storm
motion around 35 kt. Expectation is for this cluster to continue for
at least the next few hours. Despite its elevated character,
damaging gusts are still possible, with some isolated hail possible
as well. Thereafter, the cluster is expected to weaken as the
low-level jet decreases, and it enters an environment characterized
by warm and drier midlevels.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Eu2KvQdfb4ok3PqXdqLLnsQF320_fmOamqb_5qPuDjpM2Gq2uETyHdBJOzauUh4Lmt_O1xvo=
74qfi81E0o-QlpmGbY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43210360 43140232 42680106 41770093 41890287 42610375
            43210360=20


=3D =3D =3D
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