Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1276
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 09:21:48

ACUS11 KWNS 260921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260921=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-261045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...Arklatex...Southern AR...Northern
LA...Central/Southern MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...390...

Valid 260921Z - 261045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389, 390
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and damaging gusts will continue
from the Arklatex across southern AR and northern LA into central MS
for the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery continues to show a
corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms extending from the
Arklatex region southeastward into central MS. These storms are
sustained by weak warm-air advection across an outflow, which
extends from just south of HHW in Choctaw County OK southeastward
across northern LA and through TVR along the LA/MS border. This
warm-air advection is modest, but very moist low levels (i.e. 100-mb
mean mixing ratios over 18 g/kg) are leading to limited convective
inhibition. This warm-air advection is ongoing beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates, which is helping promote strong buoyancy. 40
to 50 kt of effective bulk shear extends across the region as well.

Environmental conditions suggest storms will likely persist
throughout this corridor for the next several hours, with additional
development still possible across far southeast OK and northeast TX.
Large hail is possible, particularly with any new development.
Additionally, damaging gusts are also possible, as strong downdrafts
penetrate the shallow low-level stability. Given the continued
severe threat, local watch extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
389 may need to be considered across central MS.

...Mosier.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ooIbiIhZ4sJl0pMOgsTfHiHDbkQ55btRex7HG7FnPC_3ZEMRNJ885Ry6Ekm4arpDi_LTorOg=
THCb-kY5Z8Npm-7854$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34649535 33749185 32649012 31688918 31218992 31759159
            32099230 32459350 33199507 34649535=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.