Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 09:03:50

ACUS48 KWNS 260903
SWOD48
SPC AC 260902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
A mid-level anticyclone is forecast across the south-central U.S. on
Thursday and Friday. To the north of the anticyclone, a subtle
shortwave trough will likely move eastward across the north-central
U.S. Model forecasts on both days have a moist airmass in place from
the Ohio Valley westward into southern parts of the Upper Midwest.
Scattered thunderstorm development will likely take place over much
of this moist airmass each afternoon. The strongest storms are
forecast along the northern edge of this moist airmass where
mid-level flow will be stronger. Isolated strong thunderstorms may
also develop in parts of the central High Plains, associated with a
developing shortwave trough. Strong wind gusts and hail would be the
primary threats. At this time, the lack of focus suggests that
predictability is too low to add a severe threat area.

....Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the
central U.S., as a front moves southward across the east-central
U.S. From Sunday into Monday, this front is forecast to move slowly
or stall from parts of the Ozarks eastward into the southern
Appalachians, while the upper-level trough moves eastward across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms appear most likely to
develop along and near the front each afternoon. The environment
could support an isolated severe threat, but this will likely depend
on mesoscale factors that have low predictability at this time.

...Broyles.. 06/26/2023

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