Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 06:28:27

AWUS01 KWNH 260628
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-261226-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0586
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Areas affected...New Hampshire, western/southern Maine, Vermont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260626Z - 261226Z

Summary...Slow-moving convection continues to pose a heavy
rain/flash flood threat through the early morning hours.

Discussion...A spatially focused area of deep convection continues
across the discussion area despite loss of daytime heating.  The
storms are likely being supported by a couple of atmospheric
features, including 1) light low-level southerly/upslope flow,
which was likely resulting in subtle lift/ascent and 2) an
unstable (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass with minimal convective
inhibition partially due to extremely high (near 70F) dewpoints.=20
Eventually further bolstering convective potential is the presence
of a couple upstream mid-level waves via satellite/objective
analyses over southern New York state and southern New England.=20
These waves should reach the region over the next couple hours,
potentially resulting in persistent convection through 12Z this
morning.

Cells were also heavy rain producers given the abundantly moist
environment.  1.7 inch PW values and slow northward movement of
cells were fostering 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.  Localized MRMS Flash
responses were noted as well, suggesting that excessive runoff
will continue to be a possibility in this regime.

Given the expected persistence of convection and locally heavy
rainfall, the flash flood threat (while isolated), should persist
through 12Z this morning.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!72wSJFX3hyxTrqx_Bniq3xr0DZeCsSxxxvCJDyvZk7uQt2Hz3nQ6VAQUla_tmpU8G3cW=
J52iA9IGqiyd4ha41xgPIY8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45406974 45156879 44416913 43217079 42967198=20
            43387300 44677302 44837179 45097070=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.