Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 06:07:27 AWUS01 KWNH 260607 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-261205- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0585 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 206 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023 Areas affected...middle/eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260605Z - 261205Z Summary...Strong convective complex continues to produce local 2-3 inch/hr rain rates that were exceeding FFG thresholds in a few spots. Flash flooding remains possible with this activity. Discussion...An earlier convective complex over Kentucky has maintained its intensity while picking up southward forward speed over the past couple hours. Despite the increase in forward speed, areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were noted with training convection across central Kentucky east of Bowling Green earlier. A pocket of strong instability upstream over Middle Tennessee was fostering the more robust convection on the western flank of the MCS, while persistent west-southwesterly low-level flow exceeding 30 knots was helping to maintain organization and warm advection near the MCS. With storms now over FFGs near 1 inch/hr, local exceedance is likely and flash flooding remains possible in the short term. Flash flood potential should continue through at least 11Z, although a couple of factors lend uncertainty on the magnitude of the risk over time: 1) higher FFGs (especially once storms get south of the TN/GA border area, 2) subtle cloud top warming (suggestive of lessening surface-based buoyancy and eventually rain rates over time), and 3) persistence (how long the MCS will survive through 11Z). Recent indications suggest a continued flash flood risk especially on the western flank of the MCS as it travels southward through Middle Tennessee and perhaps northern Alabama/Georgia. Latest CAMs do weaken the convective complex with southward extent, although it appears that flash flood potential will continue through at least 08-09Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4TJbo2b8LFqUrFLduJW1AQdxdLkMQR5TjHkzMJM9z6-j-zH5lS9NuhsORf5yv3vn905m= RriQP3QlobElwb5AX9oEL1g$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX... PAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36918662 36918448 36658336 35958268 35098247=20 34318251 33908354 33848532 34458655 35518724=20 36658763=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .