Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 06:03:15

ACUS02 KWNS 260603
SWODY2
SPC AC 260601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is likely to develop on Tuesday along parts
of the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central and northern
Plains. Hail and isolated wind damage will be the primary threats.

....Atlantic Seaboard...
An upper-level trough and an associated pre-frontal trough, will
move eastward towards the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday. Ahead of the
trough, a moist airmass will reside in the immediate coastal areas
of the Atlantic Seaboard. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of the
Atlantic coastal states. The strongest storms are expected to
develop close to the coast from the eastern Carolinas northward into
the Mid-Atlantic, where model consensus suggests that moderate
instability will be in place. Although deep-layer shear will be
marginal for severe storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep
around midday. This could be enough for isolated damaging gusts with
the stronger cells that develop prior to moving offshore. Hail will
also be possible.

....Central and Northern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Tuesday, as mid-level flow becomes west-southwesterly across
much of the High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in the
central High Plains as moisture advection takes place across the
central and northern Plains. By afternoon, a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast to be located in western Kansas,
western Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota, where dewpoints will
be mostly in the 60s F. Along this corridor, pockets of moderate
instability could develop during the day. Thunderstorms are expected
to form along and near the instability axis during the late
afternoon and early evening. Strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates, evident on forecast soundings, will likely
support an isolated severe threat. Hail and damaging gusts will be
the primary hazards.

...Broyles.. 06/26/2023

$$

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