Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1271
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 01:50:14

ACUS11 KWNS 260150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260149=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-260315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern and central
AR...northern/central Mississippi ...far northeast Louisiana and
eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...383...385...

Valid 260149Z - 260315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378, 383,
385 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of severe storms will continue to pose a
risk for damaging gusts and hail. New development, while uncertain
will remain possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley, an organized
QLCS will continue southeastward this evening with an accompanying
risk for severe wind gusts and hail. Across the eastern most
portions of the line, a few embedded bowing structures were noted
over northern MS. Severe wind gusts (some 70+ mph) will remain
likely  as these storms continue within a broadly unstable and
moderately sheared warm sector favorable for damaging wind gusts.

Along the upshear portions of the MCS farther west across central AR
and far eastern OK, some redevelopment has been noted over the past
1-2 hours. Driven in part by increasing low-level warm advection at
the nose of the low-level jet, additional storm initiation appears
possible this evening. However, it remains unclear exactly how much
additional convective development is possible given the relatively
modest ascent on the periphery of the cold pool. Regardless, a large
reservoir of buoyancy (4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE) and supercell wind
profiles would favor more discrete cells potentially capable of
large to very large hail in addition to damaging wind gusts.

...Lyons.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6UfkhP0GE_y_WCQ8cxVkCrBPVnB2aqlyOW5PYjY7KR1fDPSzfAU36H3FqJRO8884Aa7nJyvzj=
qM7JtXTfwnG0rPPuEk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32709229 33369348 33899382 34389422 34599503 34759550
            34959561 35229549 35509474 35419377 35339335 35099289
            34629206 34429164 34318996 34538944 34838898 34968867
            34818839 34478836 32858840 32468848 32468872 32468898
            32569094 32599144 32609186 32709229=20


=3D =3D =3D
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