Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 02:39:24

AWUS01 KWNH 260239
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-260737-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1038 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...much of Kentucky, northeastern and middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260237Z - 260737Z

Summary...Scattered storms along and just south of the Ohio River
should pose a limited/isolated flash flood risk across Kentucky
and portions of Tennessee over the next 3-5 hours or so.

Discussion...Earlier convection over the Ohio Valley has
transitioned into a broken linear band extending from near OWB to
near LEX.  The orientation of this band was somewhat parallel to
flow west-northwesterly flow aloft, allowing for localized
training despite a southward translation of the band at about
10-20 knots.  Moderate instability (ranging from 500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE - highest in western Kentucky) continued to support deep
convective updrafts, while localized training was resulting in
near 1-inch rain rates in most convection, with localized areas
approaching 2 inches/hr especially near LEX over the past half
hour.

Concern exists that this ongoing band will translate southward
toward an area of lower FFGs especially across south-central
Kentucky and northeastern Tennessee (around 1 inch/hr in those
areas).  Should storms manage to maintain their intensity and
continue to overcome loss of daytime heating, spotty/occasional
flash flood potential will exist.  Models depict persistence of
most of the convection through at least the KY/TN border area
through 05Z, which seems reasonable given downstream buoyancy and
appreciable low-level shear.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-KVvyjQPeRSkBi2vthxuh3JQHVo9R9ei_Tl5nPDJUV-f4yj8l7-ZxG-gzOhULMN_D3VL=
2oYeZaSrslrdgvel3sEuSNM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38328429 38088334 37398293 36558282 35888353=20
            36048613 36908727 37868713 38198581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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