Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1272
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 02:29:45

ACUS11 KWNS 260229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260229=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...central and southern MS into southwestern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260229Z - 260400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms across central MS and southeastern AR may
continue into southern MS and southwest AL later tonight, with a
risk for damaging winds and some hail. A new watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Across portions southern MS and southwest AL, a broad
unstable warm sector remains in place this evening ahead of a large
MCS over the mid MS Valley. The 00z JAN RAOB is unstable with 2400
J/kg of MLCAPE and only slight inhibition showing. Though displaced
south of the stronger vertical shear, some increase in mid-level
flow will likely support 35-40 kt of effective shear later this
evening. Upstream, the ArkLaMiss MCS has shown a slow downtrend in
lightning intensity indicating some possible weakening with the
onset of nocturnal cooling. Based on current observational and
hi-res guidance trends, it is unclear how much additional weakening
will take place before storms exit the southern portions of WW385 in
the next 2 hours. With the downstream air mass still largely
unstable, ongoing severe storms may continue to pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts and some hail into the overnight hours.
Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance
this evening.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5XU0nRFZwOG6RIvLVGhmiLu57HCs3oLhQiQB6VrNAStDbFkk4hUtnGzsKE1-PEnR1gWUMneVX=
5rY4KiIT0OahPszUgA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...SHV...

LAT...LON   32749209 32619021 32548894 32458870 31818805 31238801
            31038850 31118952 31469045 32229190 32749209=20


=3D =3D =3D
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