Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1269
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 26 2023 00:43:42

ACUS11 KWNS 260043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260043=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...southern Tennessee into portions of western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 260043Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms upstream across northern MS and western TN
will likely persist with a risk for significant damaging winds and
hail. A new Watch is likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 0040 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
well-developed cluster of severe storms moving across portions of
western TN and northern MS. Ahead of these storms a broad unstable
warm-sector remains mostly inhibition free across southern TN and
western AL. Large buoyancy (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE) and increasing
vertical shear (40 + kt) are likely to support continued maintenance
of the upstream cluster this evening. Hi-res guidance and reports of
damage across western TN lend strong credibility to an increasing
risk for damaging gusts (possibly 75+ mph) and hail into western AL
and possibly southern TN this evening. The main severe threat should
remain contained near/west of Interstate 65 to the east of which,
outflow from previous storms has resulted in some stabilization.
With the increasing risk for damaging winds and hail a new Severe
Thunderstorm watch is likely this evening.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9quKJ8APytTgrWBNedpVzbjjzCGx3wP_c9AkIMtmUtQmHFWyATQL-6uFA7U-KGLjRKAV-MOAl=
GK8w6Shgxx2d1moJm0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33838846 35358820 35398772 35428731 35248695 34838678
            33938673 33318688 33028715 32828751 32708798 32598846
            33838846=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.