Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1266
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 23:15:48

ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252315=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-260045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Arkansas into portions of northeastern
Louisiana and western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...383...

Valid 252315Z - 260045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378, 383
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms will continue to pose a
risk for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. A
downstream weather watch is also likely needed this evening.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of central AR, a well developed cluster
of severe storms has produced several reports of very large hail and
damaging wind gusts over the last several hours.  A transition in
storm mode is underway with the previous supercells growing upscale
into a more linear arrangement. Observational trends suggest this
will continue with storms likely to maintain intensity as they move
southeastward this evening. Within a favorable environment of large
buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, significant damaging winds
(some 75+ mph) are possible along with very large hail. The highest
confidence in significant severe wind/hail potential over the next
couple of hours will remain with the storm cluster near and south of
the Little Rock Metro.

Downstream into the ArkLaMiss region, the air mass remains quite
favorable for severe storms. As convection across AR continues to
move south, additional upscale growth is possible this evening. With
similarly large buoyancy and sufficient vertical shear for storm
organization, the severe risk is likely to increase this evening.
Damaging winds and hail appear likely, and a downstream weather
watch is probable soon.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 06/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5W7u898U0BzvbCFFBrQBb9FwibKmb--8C6ZK4n365lyEdW83Jf7pYz32h8C89nRUyFDGzKUte=
Umf_iXZRmMPgyH0V0E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   35529208 34679050 34118978 33848937 33518920 33088934
            32578980 32179074 32229155 32379206 32729251 33509323
            34849380 35349343 35529208=20


=3D =3D =3D
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