Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 23:05:52

AWUS01 KWNH 252305
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-260200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...eastern PA, NJ southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252304Z - 260200Z

Summary...Isolated rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 15-30 minutes
will continue a localized flash flood threat across portions of
the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast for another 1-3 hours.

Discussion...Recent water vapor imagery showed a closed upper
level low centered over eastern PA with vorticity lobes over
southern NJ and northeastern PA. 2250Z radar imagery showed
isolated thunderstorms with a cell over Somerset County in
northern NJ and another cell tied to outflow to the south in
Burlington County, NJ. Yet another cell recently formed back to
the west in Sullivan County (northeastern PA). SPC mesoanalysis
data from 22Z indicated 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained across the
region with the only convective inhibition existing over Long
Island and coastal regions of NJ and CT. Deeper mean layer and low
level wind vectors continue to support slow storm motions which
will be capable of 1 to 2 inches of rain in a 15-30 minute window
of time. While the overall trend should be for continued lowering
of convective coverage with the loss of daytime heating, localized
cells and possible additional development of slow moving
thunderstorms (especially over NJ) will continue to pose a very
isolated risk of flash flooding for another 1-3 hours, especially
if overlap occurs with locations that have experienced heavy rain
over the past few days.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-By1uYVV5XUuxh-WxA4N8C83mz__KwMiDPHHqFG47CnGLtsK18pNo_J0ZCbkGNmzd687=
mF_WFz2WDKW6JvTk0emz5P4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41517462 41437414 41247388 41037374 40827375=20
            40507394 39907407 39577429 39647498 40037522=20
            40577549 41227517=20

=3D =3D =3D
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