Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1265
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 22:10:48

ACUS11 KWNS 252210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252210=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into southern Alabama/Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252210Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of strong to severe storms may continue
southeastward with a risk primarily for damaging gusts and some
hail. Conditions are being monitored for a possible downstream
Watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of ongoing strong to severe storms across portions of AL and GA
within WW377. Over the last couple of hours, this cluster has
gradually become loosely organized into an MCS, as surface cold
pools have consolidated. Intensity has fluctuated somewhat, but
moderate buoyancy should continue to be sufficient for strong
updraft maintenance. Vertical shear decreases with southward extent,
but 20-25 kt of effective shear from area VADs may remain supportive
of organized multicells. The presence of a strong cold pool also
suggests storms may remain organized despite limited vertical shear.
Damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible as storms track south
and east with time. Greater buoyancy across portions of southeastern
AL may favor preferential propagation along the southwestern most
portions of the line tonight. Recent HRRR runs are also supportive
of this scenario with the main MCS shifting toward the AL/GA border
later this evening. Given the potential for damaging wind gusts and
hail this evening, a Watch is being considered.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 06/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66IXvIhlP3N7AKVHc2HMBxtcwJkGmpP64jLzaGxE3EETpPNO5k76zN2v5ohxl55R3ijhPpyaN=
d10BRG5baJbTqn3XFw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32188711 33348710 33928379 33958331 33338295 32608326
            31598407 31468459 31488541 31538614 31598652 31698668
            32188711=20


=3D =3D =3D
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