Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1264
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 21:47:51

ACUS11 KWNS 252147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252147=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...North-central Kentucky...southern
Indiana...southwest Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 374...379...381...

Valid 252147Z - 252345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374, 379, 381 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado risk will likely increase over the next few hours
with supercells moving east across portions of Tornado Watches 374,
379, and 381.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 2140z shows several
discrete supercells from extreme northwest KY northeast into
southern Indiana, with a history of very large hail.  Over the next
2 to 4 hours, the mesoscale environment will likely become more
conducive for tornado development as low-level winds strengthen in
association with an upper-level low over Lake Michigan. The
environment remains moderately to strongly unstable and with ample
deep-layer shear to support continued supercell structures.=20
RAP-based STP values of 6 to locally 8 are forecast in the 23z-02z
time frame across much of the discussion area, supporting an
increased tornado risk for supercells remaining discrete while
moving east-southeast. Given this favorable environment, a strong
tornado will be possible.

...Bunting.. 06/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!88yYALjVd2u4pmjRwEGJ1Uy_jb8AZ6zfUphZhzJFRnDSr20CSaP73HbhAMkWuI8DoyAqkwmgN=
Eui_YrpqS2pXzXk4_U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38798661 39158592 39318514 39208438 38888402 38318404
            37918431 37558465 37428490 37208537 37278678 37938728
            38408703 38798661=20


=3D =3D =3D
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