Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1261
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 20:49:35

ACUS11 KWNS 252049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252048=20
MIZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Lower MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...382...

Valid 252048Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375, 382
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind threat should continue as
thunderstorms move east-northeastward this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Compared to locations farther south into the OH Valley,
instability is weaker with northward extent into Lower MI. Still,
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is present based on latest
mesoanalysis estimates. This region also remains mostly displaced to
the north of stronger mid-level flow associated with a westerly jet
across the Midwest/OH Valley. But, around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
shear should continue to support modest organization with an arcing
band of convection moving east-northeastward over the next couple of
hours. Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity
in the short term given the linear mode currently observed. Some
hail may also occur with stronger embedded cores.

...Gleason.. 06/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!79Pg6OMcCsTwfxbmWf1jl-p0n2q9gu_x-oPyR9hxVB8-NJEDTcRiNcE2iMZJq07sYQ1ujVyFu=
0z6ELeZnCkmlLloOiw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43918647 44618612 44718452 44008278 42738273 42198484
            43298583 43918647=20


=3D =3D =3D
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