Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1260
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 20:48:32

ACUS11 KWNS 252048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252047=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma into northern and
central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378...

Valid 252047Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 378, with large hail remaining the primary threat in the short
term. A severe wind threat may materialize if an MCS can develop.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular storm clusters and transient supercells
have been progressing across northern AR over the past couple of
hours. Though no severe hail reports have been received so far, MRMS
mosaic radar data depicts MESH streaks with a history of hailstones
potentially approaching 2 inches in diameter. 20Z mesoanalysis shows
MLCAPE up to 4500 J/kg preceding the ongoing storms, suggesting that
the more discrete/semi-discrete updrafts should remain capable of
producing severe hail, with some stones potentially exceeding 2
inches in diameter. Should the ongoing storms effectively congeal a
strong, deep cold pool, then a southeastward propagating bow echo
with severe winds could still occur. Convective initiation farther
west of the ongoing storms is uncertain in the short term. However,
any storms that can develop and mature may produce very large hail
given a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and deep-layer
shear.

...Squitieri.. 06/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!88YhKqOk0PnnZwE5J53-k2pGhopPhgtN7izLUtyE-Nm99lH551vcJYFZ69q7V30Q2essFX7qJ=
VLyzWMI50DXsbpb9Xw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   36079567 36119331 36029186 35409130 34569119 34159154
            34309345 34599498 34969588 36079567=20


=3D =3D =3D
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