Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 17:51:13

AWUS01 KWNH 251751
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-260000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0579
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern NY...VT...NH...Southern ME...Western
& Central MA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251800Z - 260000Z

SUMMARY...Spotty pulse thunderstorms may produce quick 1.5-2" with
higher clustering under deformation zone from S Adirondacks to
Downeast Maine.  Spots of low-end flash flooding are possible
particularly along slopes of steeper terrain or areas of lower
FFG.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible loop and surface observations denote a
cold front dropping southward into the far northern portions of NE
NY, VT, NH and the Rooftop of ME and is well demarcated by leading
edge of higher density smoke.  The smoke appears to be inhibiting
insolation a bit better with less coverage of cumulus helping to
reinforce the frontal boundary.  Aloft, WV suite denotes a
shear/deformation axis from near Syracuse through southern VT, NH
into southern ME, which aligns with enhanced 850-700 mb and
700-500mb axis in the CIRA LPW analysis; while best surface to
850mb moisture is over Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks,
supported by upper 60s Tds with spots of low 70s noted. Insolation
will steadily increase MLCAPEs toward the 1500 J/kg range
along/ahead of the front.  Weak but opposing low level flow along
with mountain circulation, should support sufficient convergence
for widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development through
the mid-afternoon, with enhanced coverage along aforementioned
moisture/deformation zone axis.=20

Additionally, cells will have a more pulse like nature given weak
mid-level flow/bulk shear, but given moisture values of 1.5-1.7"
through the column and fairly deep (~12 to 14Kft) warm cloud
profile, there should be efficient rainfall production with
1.5-1.75" hourly rates/totals common within the cores of the
stronger cells.  This is well in range of 1hr FFG values across
much of the steeper terrain of the Adirondacks, Green, White
Ranges, there are naturally lower values across S ME and upper
reaches of the Susquehanna watershed of south-central NY, that may
be exceeded as well.  Spots of 2-2.5" are not out of the question
particularly toward the mid-evening hours when updraft strength is
higher especially given some possible cell mergers/collisions,
resulting in possible low end incidents of flash flooding through
00z.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-XFCSNpwCS7aAYGmibP8s6_1P5A1rctOI6VjhtW680_l5NhyC5GcHa74zVHX5LpYvrY0=
8IZAcDv-E-JY6YvAsm6hLXk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...BUF...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45516771 44656753 43907095 42297184 42287304=20
            42187408 42077513 42227588 42657630 43757605=20
            44137571 44517515 44647413 44497297 44507189=20
            44877055 45166954=20

=3D =3D =3D
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