Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 25 2023 01:01:11

ACUS01 KWNS 250101
SWODY1
SPC AC 250059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA...IOWA...NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible
into the overnight hours across a broad area from parts of the
southern Great Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.  One or two
clusters of storms could still develop near or just east of the
middle Mississippi Valley through daybreak.

....01Z Update...
Models indicate that a modest cyclone (currently centered at the
surface) over southeastern North Dakota will gradually occlude and
weaken overnight while gradually reforming east-southeastward into
the Upper Midwest.  A trailing surface cold front is forecast to
surge southeastward/southward through much of the lower Missouri
Valley and central Great Plains, while a dryline lingers across
parts of northwest Texas/western Oklahoma.

Strongest mid/upper support for upward vertical motion will remain
focused within a strongly difluent regime to the southeast of the
mid-level low, downstream of a seasonably strong digging mid-level
jet (50+ kt around 500 mb) across and northeast of the lower
Missouri Valley.  The leading edge of the return of seasonably moist
air on southerly flow beneath this regime is contributing to
moderately large CAPE in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Low-level forcing for ascent has remained weak, but various model
output suggests that lower/mid-level warm advection will strengthen
across southeastern Iowa through central Illinois this evening,
where storms could still increase and consolidate into an organizing
cluster.

As the larger-scale mid-level troughing continues to dig overnight,
models suggest similar, but perhaps weaker, forcing for ascent may
develop across parts of southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois
into the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward daybreak.  Inflow of
seasonably moist air with large potential instability will
contribute to an environment at least conditionally supportive of
another organizing cluster of storms posing a risk for severe hail
and wind.

...Kerr.. 06/25/2023

$$

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