Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 23:49:57

AWUS01 KWNH 242349
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-250545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...north-central MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242347Z - 250545Z

Summary...Slow movement/training of thunderstorms over
north-central MN should allow for at least a localized flash flood
threat over the next few hours. Rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr are
expected.

Discussion...Radar imagery over northwestern MN at 23Z showed a
lone supercell just west of a FSE to 3N8 line with a history of
training and slow south to north motion. MRMS-derived rainfall
rates with this cell showed peak values in the 2-3 in/hr range
ending 23Z. This cell was located just north of a quasi-stationary
front that extended WNW to ESE across north-central MN, attached
into an occluded cyclone whose low pressure was centered to the
west in eastern ND. North of the WNW-ESE quastationary front
showed surface to 1 km AGL flow from the east, veering to the
south from near 850 mb to the tropopause. Data from the 23Z SPC
mesoanalysis showed ML and MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and
precipitable water values of 1.2 to 1.5 inches across the region
(1 to 2 standard deviations above the mean).

As a well-defined closed low in water vapor imagery continues to
slowly shift east late this evening and overnight, strong forcing
(CVA, upper jet induced divergence and diffluence) will overspread
MN which should increase convective coverage ahead of the cold
front and along/north of the quasi-stationary front over the next
3 hours with an expected overall evolution toward the east with
time. Increasing convective inhibition over western areas should
diminish the risk for flash flooding after 03Z-04Z. Thunderstorms,
especially with cells rooted just above the surface, will have the
potential to exhibit training given the fairly unidirectional
southerly flow above 850 mb. The environment has already shown the
potential for 2-3 in/hr rates and despite the dry antecedent
conditions, areas of FFG are 2-3 inches in 3 hours for portions of
the MPD threat area. At least a localized flash flood threat is
expected to evolve over portions of north-central MN through 06Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4h4pKzh7LBT6pJmI2xS4ZLK36v5tzqlOHhMmJcWpDMlFRhMVuT3KDjeX3aJRMTFR2m8k=
O3LRGEEh-a9FhBVhaNS7L00$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47819575 47789483 47529412 47309363 47169330=20
            46729280 46299276 45889311 45869359 45999424=20
            46549510 46939613 47259703 47569673=20

=3D =3D =3D
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