Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1244
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 20:50:49

ACUS11 KWNS 242050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242050=20
MNZ000-WIZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern MN and extreme western
WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242050Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist this afternoon.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently developed across south-central
MN, in a modest low-level warm advection regime in advance of an
ejecting upper trough/low over the northern Plains. This
thunderstorm has had a recent report of a funnel cloud. The eastern
extent of any appreciable severe threat across southeastern MN will
likely be constrained by a less unstable airmass into western WI.
Even so, some threat for severe thunderstorms will probably persist
this afternoon across parts of southern into eastern MN, as a weakly
unstable airmass and 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear support some
updraft rotation. Uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude of the
severe threat remains high, but isolated large hail and damaging
winds may occur with the more intense convection, especially if they
can maintain supercellular structure. The tornado threat appears a
bit lower due to marginal low-level shear. But, there may still be
enough 0-1 km SRH to support a brief tornado. Observational trends
will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance over the next
couple of hours.

...Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6YlgJEKlMybWXrmQOVcPe8L0KtgEKr3a3YOcBpTpjEkQI_RYEIhmSubgS-p7t1cq5rE2BS1qI=
qGuP9lFPuSJVgl-UY4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43879430 45029375 45269313 44929251 44469254 43679289
            43549367 43649419 43879430=20


=3D =3D =3D
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