Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1240
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 19:11:07

ACUS11 KWNS 241911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241910=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern ND into northern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 241910Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes may gradually increase this
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations and recent visible satellite
imagery show a low centered over southeast ND. A warm front extends
eastward from this low across parts of northern MN. Filtered daytime
heating with some cloud breaks has allowed surface temperatures to
generally increase into the mid 70s to low 80s along/south of the
front in MN. Additional heating this afternoon should encourage
around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop over the next couple of
hours near the warm front. Although located just north of the warm
front, recent VWPs from KMVX show enhanced easterly low-level flow
gradually veering to southeasterly with height through mid levels.
Resultant 100-150 m2/s2 of effective bulk shear, greater near the
surface low in far eastern ND and northwest MN, should foster
low-level updraft rotation with any low-topped thunderstorms that
can form this afternoon. A few tornadoes appear possible in this
regime as convection develops and crosses the warm front with time,
along with isolated hail and gusty winds. It is not clear how many
robust thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, and the spatial
extent of the severe threat appears rather confined. But, trends
will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance over the next
couple of hours.

...Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6EmB6UOKmzkTtIGBtO00rI_u_Ho-ejHDX6rege60sEl9sMxX8Ba-vrrj1JQFtShha-gOyks8e=
CZEazy95f61AySIs6o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46399664 46789728 47159697 47449616 47489492 47249395
            46819355 46349367 46179468 46189568 46399664=20


=3D =3D =3D
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