Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 17:41:10 ACUS02 KWNS 241741 SWODY2 SPC AC 241739 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the Ohio Valley and potentially southwestward into the Mid South and into Mississippi and Alabama. Severe gusts resulting in wind damage and large to very large hail will be possible on Sunday. A couple of tornadoes are possible in the Ohio Valley. ....OH Valley into the Mid South and MS/AL... A mid-level low/associated trough over the upper to mid MS Valley will move east-southeast into the central Great Lakes by early Monday morning. A belt of strong 500-mb flow will move through the base of the trough over the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and portions of the TN Valley. Large model variability is resulting in considerable uncertainty for this forecast with ongoing showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday morning from potentially the southwestern Great Lakes southward into the Mid South. With those caveats/concerns mentioned, a large reservoir of rich low-level moisture will reside from the lower MS Valley northward into the OH Valley in absence of any convective overturning during the morning. More aggressive model solutions for destabilization show the development of a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass developing from AR eastward through the Mid South and northward into the OH Valley. It seems likely some of this broad region will have a thunderstorm cluster with associated wind/hail risk deplete some of the potential instability. However, areas located on the periphery of the potential thunderstorm clusters/MCSs near residual outflow or on the front, will be favored areas for additional thunderstorms and a severe risk. It seems most probable that a concentrated area of wind-damage potential may reside over parts of the OH Valley southward into middle TN where the mid-level speed max is forecast to overspread the warm sector. Have aggressively expanded 5 and 15-percent wind probabilities into the upper OH Valley, MS/AL and into AR to account for both spatial uncertainty and the depiction by the last 6 model runs of the deterministic ECMWF and the latest HREF ensemble sshow several linear clusters moving across these corridors. By the mid evening, a gradual subsiding and confining of the severe risk is expected with the greatest risk perhaps shifting into parts of the lower MS Valley. ....Southeast WY... Strong heating amidst a weak upslope regime may foster a few thunderstorms during the afternoon over southeast WY near the Cheyenne Ridge. Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow strengthening with height will favor some organization with the stronger updrafts. An isolated risk for hail/wind may accompany the stronger cores for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening before this activity subsides. ....Western ID and eastern OR... A mid-level low over the interior Pacific NW and strong heating will promote scattered thunderstorms developing during the day across the interior NW and northern Intermountain regions. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and adequate moisture will probably result in around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts may occur with the more robust convection during the late afternoon into the mid evening hours. ...Smith.. 06/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .