Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1241
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 19:41:09

ACUS11 KWNS 241941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241940=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern LA and southwestern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241940Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds may
exist this afternoon. But, watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across parts of eastern/southeastern LA and southwestern MS
along/near an instability gradient. Modest southerly flow veers to
northerly and strengthens some with height at mid levels per recent
VWPs from KLIX/KDGX. Around 20-30 kt of related deep-layer shear may
be sufficient for a mix of loosely organized clusters and pulse
thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon. Given the very
moist low-level airmass and steepened low-level lapse rates where
robust heating has occurred, wet microbursts may be capable of
producing isolated damaging winds. Occasional severe hail may also
occur with the strongest updrafts. Still, given the limited
low-level and deep-layer shear, watch issuance is not expected.

...Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9vn2YNw0NdYiN8Jwb7XfdGvYS_M6TmFD4siZwZcCq1qt4gGUZLXDOSomQYkK_c3dRJoUC0gmV=
EdFPvVp2RJJy8thssk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31959184 31839069 30998972 30168962 29638978 29169080
            29339166 29609234 30069267 30559277 31569264 31959184=20


=3D =3D =3D
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