Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 07:14:32 ACUS03 KWNS 240714 SWODY3 SPC AC 240713 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ....SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging winds and hail will be possible. An isolated severe threat will also be possible in the northern High Plains. ....Eastern U.S... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the southern Appalachians. At the surface, a front will move into the Appalachians as a pre-frontal trough develops from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate to strong instability is expected by afternoon along and near the surface trough. Convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the Appalachians and spread eastward into the Piedmont. It appears that an isolated severe threat will develop with storms that move into the stronger instability during the late afternoon from eastern Pennsylvania southward into the Carolinas. The greatest severe threat could be from southern Virginia into central North Carolina, where model forecasts suggest the combination of instability and shear will be maximized. Storms that form in this more favorable zone could have a threat for wind damage and hail, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ....Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the High Plains on Monday. At the surface, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across the central and northern High Plains. As instability increases during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop. The strongest storms may form from eastern Wyoming southeastward into western Nebraska, along and near the instability axis. NAM forecast soundings by late afternoon near Scottsbluff, Nebraska have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The large temperature-dewpoint spreads are expected to result in high storm bases. The storms could be associated with strong wind gusts and hail. ...Broyles.. 06/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .