Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1236
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 06:52:02

ACUS11 KWNS 240651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240651=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-240815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368...

Valid 240651Z - 240815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across
central and eastern NE for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from the two ongoing convective lines in
central NE converged just east of the KLNX radar. The southern
outflow, which has a bit more northeastward progression, now appears
most prominent, with new development recently developing along its
leading edge in southern Brown, Blaine, and northern Custer
counties. Recent storm-motion estimates show this convective line is
moving east-northeast at 50 kt, and the latest velocity data from
KLNX shows strong outbounds. There is also a minimum in reflectivity
data in the wake of the line. All of these factors suggest that a
rear-inflow jet has strengthened within this portion of the line.=20

Ample low-level moisture, verified by surface dewpoints in the mid
60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7 deg C per km from 700
to 500 mb) exist downstream across east-central NE. Additionally, a
southerly low-level jet extends across much of central and eastern
NE, with related warm-air advection across the region. Expectation
is for the ongoing line to continue eastward, with an attendant
threat for damaging gusts. A corridor of stronger gusts is possible
across east-central NE, roughly from ODX to BVN and OFK. Current
storm motion takes the line to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
368 at 09Z.

...Mosier.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5BNYG_b9Z1CIj-gcQFVSOjy_C7tYawu2x4Umn9Q3atJL6Q1pOHefP9OVGihioND9lp20QzqqN=
dN7xS8kJC4oj681xpU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41110012 42739992 42949810 42549713 40939730 40509796
            40509972 41110012=20


=3D =3D =3D
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