Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 03:53:36

AWUS01 KWNH 240353
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-240752-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0575
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...southwestern Nebraska, northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240352Z - 240752Z

Summary...Ongoing convection should result in a flash flood threat
for the next few hours, though forward movement is also likely to
pick up through 07Z.

Discussion...Convergence on the nose of strengthening
low-level/850mb flow (now at 35 knots) has fostered deep, robust
convection to develop generally along an axis from near SNY to
near FMM recently.  Additional, robust development was located
closer to BFF.  The cells were initially slow-moving (around 15-20
knots to the east-northeast), although strong buoyancy and high
moisture content (3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.2 inch PW, respectively)
was allowing for cells to produce localized 2-2.5 inch/hr rain
rates (estimated per MRMS).  These rates were exceeding FFG
thresholds (currently around 1-2 inches/hr), and low to moderate
MRMS Flash responses were already materializing beneath the storms
over the past half hour.

Fortunately, the proximity of the storms and merging cold pools
should result in relatively quick upscale growth of storms into a
forward-propagating complex through 07Z or so.  As this occurs,
storms should pick up eastward forward speed and allow for a
lessening of local rain rates.  The best opportunity for flash
flooding with this activity should exist through 07Z, with a
gradual lessening of potential thereafter.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4h9WeVOo0QB1vnkaDJ5s4ajSjXje0VyJ8zwGiJrNXcJdWq_AJXfmmNhByVx7EJT4mwYo=
vc9QiGffZV_AUfwKKwpiYGo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42180361 41930276 41670173 41610055 41799932=20
            41539878 40569828 39999953 39990304 40360362=20
            40930416 42120412=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.