Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1233
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 03:20:00

ACUS11 KWNS 240319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240319=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-240415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 240319Z - 240415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across pars of central and
eastern Nebraska as storms develop across this area.  With severe
storms farther to the west also expected to eventually affect this
area, a new WW will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms increasing across
northeastern Nebraska, within a zone of increasing warm advection
with the eastern branch of a southerly low-level jet.  While
decreasing with eastward extent toward the Missouri Valley, an amply
unstable airmass is in place, which will support continued storm
development/sustenance.  With recent FSD WSR-88D VWP showing
sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms, with low-level
southeasterlies veering to 35 kt westerlies at mid levels, risk for
hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts will continue to slowly
increase in the short term.

Later, severe storms farther west -- expected to grow upscale into
an eastward-moving MCS with time -- should eventually spread into
this region.  Overall, the anticipated evolution will likely warrant
new Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

...Goss/Thompson.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8zSiCakc5Iy4MJLij_5UwKYJkjWDZVZ_qroApCzH7xyjo7JASAGjwezFOsl1AOVHUXKKrNr7f=
4VKhOm1PBYQkHuaYbo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42700056 43000009 43009774 41689649 40869685 40960011
            42700056=20


=3D =3D =3D
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