Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1232
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 02:52:58

ACUS11 KWNS 240252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240252=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-240415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska and far southern South
Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 362...365...

Valid 240252Z - 240415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 362, 365 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will continue to pose a risk for
large hail damaging winds and a tornado or two this evening. Greater
wind damage potential may evolve as storms congeal tonight.

DISCUSSION...As of 0245 UTC, scattered severe storms were ongoing
across portions of western NE. Several supercells have been noted
and should continue to pose a wind and hail risk within the
favorable CAPE/shear parameter space tonight. Recent HRRR runs show
additional storm development over northern CO may merge and grow
upscale with the ongoing NE storms. Damaging wind potential should
increase as outflow consolidates and surface cold pools strengthen.
Area VADs have also shown an increase in low-level hodograph size
this evening, likely in response to the low-level jet and increasing
broad-scale ascent. 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 may support a tornado
or two, especially with the more discrete supercells. Though
increasing storm interactions lend much lower confidence in the
tornado potential with time.

...Lyons.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!46hbW69p6eYdUS0vjkeQs0KfKJWxC3EAf1Do9LC-Ud7joUQvZuGlOVWGBdd2uUQq6R6-ATRwl=
geMKwZhnRN7qmyXZxE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40930282 41150358 41670396 41960402 42300398 42530380
            42990294 43330162 43350052 43049979 41979976 41509988
            41110014 40750076 40690135 40690175 40790217 40880252
            40930282=20


=3D =3D =3D
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