Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1231
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 02:08:30

ACUS11 KWNS 240208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240207=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 240207Z - 240300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms should continue
to grow upscale into an MCS across western/Central SD this evening.
A new Watch is needed downstream to cover the risk for damaging
winds, hail, and tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of western SD, numerous thunderstorms
have initiated ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting
eastward out of WY. A well-developed squall line across far western
SD should continue eastward with moderate buoyancy and increasing
effective shear continue to favor storm organization. As broad-scale
ascent continue to increase this evening ahead of the ejecting
shortwave, numerous ongoing storms ahead of the established squall
line should result in upscale growth and MCS development over
central SD. Damaging winds and hail are likely along with a tornado
or two as the MCS matures later this evening. A new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed this evening into the overnight.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 06/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ujfUV1eidI5T47wq43GCMhsKrEW5VTpISvztCt0DJLSgWavwgff08R9x3MncAUuB2dNBNLBB=
_DPSB_WKGwZh-VK_Fw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43089953 43380024 43770095 44200138 45230201 45710188
            45890145 45960074 45869843 45589767 44929756 43639766
            43209798 43019911 43089953=20


=3D =3D =3D
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