Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 24 2023 01:07:32 ACUS01 KWNS 240107 SWODY1 SPC AC 240105 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN WY INTO SOUTHERN SD AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NE... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of the High Plains, with a few tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts possible. Later tonight, a more widespread severe-wind threat may develop across central and southern South Dakota into northern and central Nebraska. ....Eastern WY/northeast CO into NE and southern SD... A few intense supercells are ongoing this evening across eastern WY, which will continue to pose a threat for very large hail and a couple of tornadoes through mid evening. Additional storm development has recently been noted across parts of central NE and northeast CO, and an eventual increase in storm coverage and development of a MCS is expected later tonight across parts of NE and southern SD as a southerly low-level jet intensifies. Strong instability and effective shear of 40-50 kt will help to support MCS maintenance into the overnight hours, and a swath of severe gusts (possibly in excess of 75 mph) will be possible across central/southern SD into northern/central NE. ....Southeast CO/western KS/OK Panhandle... An intense supercell cluster is ongoing across extreme southeast CO and will move into southwest KS and the OK Panhandle this evening. The environment across southwest KS is characterized by rich low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and sufficient low-level shear/SRH for storm rotation, and a tornado threat will continue as long as the cluster persists. However, MLCINH will continue to increase with time, and the longevity of this cluster remains uncertain. ....Parts of west into north-central TX and southern OK... Widely scattered intense storms are ongoing this evening across the TX South Plains into the Big Country vicinity, while an earlier storm cluster is gradually weakening across northeast TX. The evolution of storms across TX and southern OK later tonight remains highly uncertain, due to the influence of multiple outflows. Some upscale growth remains possible into parts of northwest/north-central TX and southern OK later tonight, so the Slight Risk will be maintained for this scenario with lower than average confidence. ....Southeast TX into southwest LA... Isolated intense storms have developed this evening from southeast TX into southwest LA, within a weakly forced but also weakly capped environment characterized by very strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear for organized convection. The longevity of the ongoing storms remains uncertain and will likely diminish as MLCINH increases later tonight, but isolated hail and/or damaging gusts will be possible for as long as the ongoing storms persist. ...Dean.. 06/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .