Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1224
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 22:50:26

ACUS11 KWNS 232250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232249=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas south to
eastern New Mexico and the South Plains of Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 232249Z - 240045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated storms continue to pose a risk for large hail and
damaging winds across the western half of the WW, with potential for
a tornado increasing over southwestern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated severe storms in two
small clusters -- one over southeastern Colorado, and the other
across western parts of the Texas South Plains.  With the storms on
the western fringe of the main, north-south axis of instability that
ranges up to 3000 to 3500 J/kg CAPE, expect the storms to maintain
intensity/organization as they shift gradually eastward.

Along with risk for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts, risk
for a tornado or two is evident across parts of southwestern Kansas.
While the airmass here remains weakly capped with eastward extent,
storms moving into this region out of eastern Colorado will likely
maintain intensity as they encounter the more moist/strongly
unstable airmass.  With the DDC WSR-88D VWP showing low-level
southerly flow around 20 kt veering to westerly at around 2km AGL,
shear appears sufficient to support low-level rotation.

...Goss.. 06/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9jBjY29OsekCCTKUsEvQa98nCjFqMnxCDsph5ZMBsHb3I92uQNpb_YlBGDJ7DodbI2OoKKtDg=
SLqLqI3Qt8ZArdrVAw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32960286 34140304 35410350 37230354 38210296 38600169
            38430126 36350126 33150125 32960286=20


=3D =3D =3D
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