Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1221
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 20:07:28

ACUS11 KWNS 232007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232007=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas...the
western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 232007Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying supercells and small organizing
clusters of storms appear possible by 5-7 PM CDT, if not earlier.

DISCUSSION...A seasonably strong belt of west-southwesterly
mid-level flow (40-50 kt around 500 mb) has nosed across the
southern Rockies through the Raton Mesa vicinity and adjacent Great
Plains, downstream of troughing progressing across the eastern Great
Basin and southern Rockies.  Forcing for ascent associated with the
latter feature appears likely to aide ongoing convection now forming
across and to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

During the next few hours, it appears that initially high-based
thunderstorms will continue to form and advect off the higher
terrain, before beginning to intensify near the eastward mixing
dryline, northeast through east of the Raton Mesa vicinity into the
western Texas Panhandle, as early as 22-00Z.  In the presence of
strong deep-layer shear and large mixed-layer CAPE (supported by
seasonably high moisture content and steep lapse rates), models
indicate that the environment will become conducive to a mix of
discrete supercells and small upscale growing clusters posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts.  Although low-level
hodographs may remain modest until after dark, it is possible that
the strongest discrete storms may also be accompanied by the risk
for tornadoes.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_DfBVStOJ5IieWwzHnEVdJy-h87DU--hpQWd5211_pvc-1IXOER0oNu-LySBNSWOvQO3xxF3q=
QqA9Pe-I7VeHrPl54M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35350277 36320330 37890269 38810347 39530281 38170130
            36880149 35720127 34620118 33680183 34390251 35350277=20


=3D =3D =3D
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