Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1219
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 18:01:26

ACUS11 KWNS 231801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231800=20
WYZ000-232000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...Portions of western/central WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231800Z - 232000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and gusty winds will
probably continue into the afternoon. But, watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Some heating has occurred this morning across parts of
southwest into central WY, along and south of a front. Even though
low-level moisture remains somewhat limited, at least low 50s
dewpoints have advanced past the Bighorns and into central WY based
on latest surface observations. The 12Z sounding from RIW showed
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, and daytime heating of the
modestly moist low-level airmass is already contributing to 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Mid/upper-level
flow is expected to strengthen further over this region through the
afternoon, as a shortwave trough advances east-northeastward. 35-40+
kt of deep-layer will foster updraft organization, with an isolated
supercell or two possible. Severe hail should be the main threat
with any discrete convection, while strong/gusty winds may also
occur with any small cluster that can develop. At this point, it
appears that the severe threat will remain fairly isolated across
western/central WY this afternoon. Accordingly, watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

...Gleason/Guyer.. 06/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6b8DSNOs4U5Ll--XO9OOnTqe9lBG7h4wPZUEatETnyIcS3vosqsM92V49eb1Iiz34qdadaaiS=
6IaRfDhwYcNiD7RtP8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...

LAT...LON   41481044 42221014 43470859 44320716 44260651 43620637
            42440755 41350923 41231008 41481044=20


=3D =3D =3D
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