Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1218
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 17:48:24

ACUS11 KWNS 231748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231747=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...central into southeastern Oklahoma and adjacent
northern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

Valid 231747Z - 231945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.

SUMMARY...Although the organized cluster of thunderstorms may now be
in the process of weakening, a swath of strong to severe wind gusts
may persist another couple of hours across and east-southeast of the
Oklahoma City Metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...Based on recent warming of cloud tops and diminishing
lightning flash rates, convection near the MCV is beginning to
weaken.  However, initially strong rear inflow focused to the south
of this feature, now spreading across and east-southeast of the
Oklahoma City Metro, may continue to be accompanied by potentially
damaging surface gusts another hour or two before diminishing.

Strongest convection is now focused on the southern flank of the
convection system, within a lingering zone of forced ascent
associated with warm advection.  Some risk for hail, and more
localized strong gusts, may persist with this activity, south of the
Oklahoma City Metro into the eastern Oklahoma Red River vicinity
through 19-20Z.  However, there are indications that strengthening
mid-level inhibition associated with warming and building ridging
aloft may be in the process of suppressing convection, and it is
possible that new severe weather watch may not be needed.

...Kerr.. 06/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5doBDiHh7HYnl3k8X72bNxAQFJq2zlpVAc7Zh3PFkdg0inVca1m9hFlQtb7fo76tAwikC2s-J=
26ufoQ8TMN36ybkAHE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35589719 35629647 35309524 34899515 33789560 33869639
            34229737 34749758 35229740 35589719=20


=3D =3D =3D
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