Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 17:36:56 ACUS02 KWNS 231736 SWODY2 SPC AC 231735 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ....Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... A cluster of showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across the lower-mid MO Valley. An isolated risk for severe gusts may accompany this activity. As a mid-level trough gradually moves east across the north-central states on Saturday, strong westerly flow moving through the base of the trough will feature 50-kt 500mb flow. A front will move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley and encounter surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Considerable uncertainty exists whether the shower/thunderstorm activity Saturday morning will regenerate or new development will focus on the outflow, or if the front will be the focus for afternoon storm development. Regardless, a very moist/unstable airmass will reside across the lower MO Valley northward into IA/southern MN. Supercells capable of all hazards are possible during a relatively confined time window during the afternoon/early evening. A more probable but still uncertain scenario revolves around the timing/placement of upscale growth of an MCS across the central U.S. Damaging gusts are likely this convective cluster and the severe threat may linger well into the evening hours. Further south into the Ozarks, capping will likely limit convective coverage aside from an MCS moving into the region due to warm 700 mb temperatures from +11 to +14 C. However, the kinematic/buoyancy progged by model guidance would suggest at least an isolated risk for severe storms (hail/wind). ....Lower MS Valley... Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast on Saturday. A moisture-rich airmass will destabilize as surface temperatures warm into the lower 90s. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg and PW 1.75-2.00 inches. Strongly veering profiles will result in modest deep-layer shear for multicellular storm organization. Isolated wet microbursts and severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms during the afternoon/early evening before this activity subsides. ....TX... Strong heating on the northern portion of the upper ridge centered over Mexico, will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer on the western fringe of richer low-level moisture across mainly central portions of TX. Isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are possible and the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk. ...Smith.. 06/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .