Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1217
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 15:22:25

ACUS11 KWNS 231522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231521=20
OKZ000-231715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...western and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231521Z - 231715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...It remains unclear how much longer an increasingly
organized cluster of thunderstorms will be maintained, but it could
be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe gusts
into midday, which may persist for a period even after convection
begins to weaken.  It is not certain that a severe weather watch is
needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A sustained cluster of thunderstorms has become better
organized over the past hour or so, just north of the Interstate 40
corridor across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.=20
This has included the evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric
mesoscale convective vortex and strengthening rear inflow, which
could continue to descend and contribute to strong surface gusts as
it approaches areas near and southwest of the Oklahoma City area
through 16-18Z.=20=20

However, as this occurs, rising mid-level heights and increasing
inhibition are forecast as mid-level ridging builds downstream of
the significant short wave trough progressing northeastward across
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies.  With forward
(east-southeastward) propagation into an initially drier and less
unstable, though modifying, environment, it remains unclear how much
longer this convection will be maintained, with convection allowing
model output struggling with this activity as well.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5IkiZB54PjnTsj9gy8Zh5KkCPMydN6o1VYZabFqpVgoRzSUTTE5w8lZ0GRkUhK-rqo2lCpr1M=
MNkOvvtwr8pdC-cilU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   35909922 36029842 36019771 35339683 34669712 34509794
            34969917 35219969 35549940 35909922=20


=3D =3D =3D
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