Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 08:53:20

ACUS48 KWNS 230853
SWOD48
SPC AC 230851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4...
An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region
on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley
and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints
in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas
north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is
forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon.
Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move
east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the
afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear
and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe
storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats.

....Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6...
On Tuesday and Wednesday, a typical summertime ridge is forecast
across the Great Plains. An axis of moisture and instability is
expected to setup beneath the upper-level ridge. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along and near the
instability axis during the afternoon and evening. Although a severe
threat will be possible in parts of the central and northern Plains
on both days, predictability remains low concerning the magnitude
and spacing of any potential severe threat.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The upper ridge is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes
on Thursday and Friday, as an upper-level trough moves southeastward
into the north-central states. Ahead of the trough, low-level
moisture and instability is forecast to be sufficient for isolated
severe thunderstorms each afternoon. The severe-threat potential
will depend upon the timing of the upper-level system, and
distribution of moisture and instability. At this time,
predictability concerning these factors appears to be low.

...Broyles.. 06/23/2023

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